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Tajikistan |
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Country information
POLITICS
Recent Political Developments
Presidential elections in November 2006 resulted in a landslide victory of 79% for the incumbent, President Rahmon, who has effectively been in power since 1992. As a result of a constitutional referendum in 2003, Rahmon could run for a further term of office, potentially allowing him to remain President until 2020. The last Parliamentary elections, which were held in February 2005, resulted in an overwhelming majority for the President's party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP). The OSCE concluded that neither Presidential nor Parliamentary elections had been fully in accordance with international standards. Although there appeared to be a choice of candidates and parties in both elections, and most voting procedures were in accordance with OSCE norms, the genuineness of some of the "opposition" candidates has been called into question, as has the reliability of the vote counting procedures. The main, genuine opposition party, the Islamic Revival Party decided not to field a candidate for President on the grounds that they needed to consolidate their party following the recent death of their leader, Nuri, and have only partially competed in recent by-elections, complaining that they did not believe the elections would be transparent and fair.
The Islamic Revival Party (IRP) is the only officially recognised Islamic party in Central Asia. Its legality is enshrined in the civil war peace accord and, under the direction of its current leader, Muhiddin Kabiri, pursues a moderate, liberal policy, envisaging a secular state guided by Muslim principles. Its decision not to pursue a more radical Islamic agenda or to be overly critical of the government has led to some increase in support for the banned Islamic movement, Hizb-ut-Tahrir, which pursues a more radical, pan-Islamic agenda.
As a result of the civil war peace accord, the ruling PDP agreed to share 30% of all governmental positions with United Opposition candidates. This was never fully implemented and the government has steadily reduced the number of positions awarded to non PDP members. This has not, however, resulted in open political discontent. At the same time, President Rahmon has continued to consolidate his hold on power by neutralising former warlords and potential rivals from both sides of the civil war divide. Iskandarov, the Head of the Democratic Party, was seized in dubious circumstances in Moscow in 2005, tried and convicted to 25 years in prison in Tajikistan for corruption and other offences. The former Head of the Presidential Guard, General Mirzoyev, was sentenced to life imprisonment in August 2006 for organising a coup d'etat. One of the legacies of the civil war is the fear among Tajiks that "opposition" politics are likely to be divisive and dangerous to national stability and peace. For the time being, this, together with the absence of any strong opposition figures or parties, mitigates against the likelihood of a "coloured" revolution in Tajikistan.
While a façade of democracy is in place, in practice power is concentrated in the hands of the President. Recent election victories and government re-shuffles have not resulted in any change of policies or invigorated the political landscape. Parliament is weak and acts as little more than a rubber stamp for Presidential decrees. There are no genuine debates and deputies are seen more as sources of patronage than as representatives of their constituents' interests. Nevertheless, President Rahmon retains genuine popularity as the man seen as being responsible for bringing peace to the country and managing to retain its stability.
Challenges to stability
Tajikistan remains beset, however, by social and economic problems that, if left unsolved, could lead in the longer term to discontent being openly expressed. Much of the country's infrastructure (transport, roads, utilities) is now worse than in Soviet times while access to services such as health and education is less equitable than in the past, and the quality has declined as many of the country's educated and technical professionals left Tajikistan during the civil war. The dire state of government planning and provision was most graphically illustrated during the energy crisis caused by the particularly severe winter of 2007-08. Almost all industry shut down, rural areas were bereft of electricity for up to three months and even the capital faced severe rationing. The Tajik Government were slow to face up to the reality of the situation and it was, the UN who issued a humanitarian appeal which raised almost $10 million for emergency works and supplies. The medium-term effects of the crisis continue to be felt as farmers have no stocks or financial reserves to fund this year's planting. Despite these problems people are still reluctant to openly criticise the government for mis-management.
The increasing concentration of power in the hands of a small coterie of officials from the President's home area of Dangara is alienating those from other parts of the country, while preventing the selection of the best people for the job. Despite the creation of an anti-corruption committee, the government has so far failed seriously to address the issue (not least as corrupt practices pervade so far and high within Tajik society). Corruption at all levels is a major impediment to progress and inequalities of wealth are now becoming obvious in the capital. One of the most worrying aspects of the visible new wealth is that only a small proportion is likely to be the result of legitimate business; much is likely to derive from corrupt practices or as a result of Tajikistan's role as a transit country for Afghan heroin. However, despite the growing presence of drug traffickers, other criminal activity does not appear to have increased and the country remains relatively safe.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Tajikistan is a signatory to most of the UN Conventions on human rights. In June 2004, the Tajik parliament adopted a moratorium on the death penalty and in March 2005 President Rahmon signed into law alternatives to the death penalty, ranging from 25 years to life imprisonment. Prison conditions are grim. Despite high-level lobbying, the ICRC have not been allowed ad-hoc prison access. The court system is largely unmodified from the Soviet era. There is no genuine independent judiciary and bribery of judges and prosecutors is thought to be widespread.
Independent media outlets are legal in Tajikistan but penalties for libel and 'irresponsible' journalism encourage self-censorship. This, combined with rather low professional journalistic skills and a limited market for written media (newspapers are only published once a week) results in an underdeveloped media environment, although the analytical quality of articles is improving. The BBC has been unable to broadcast on FM since January 2006. Although the government have given assurances that this is only for technical reasons while the registering and licensing agreements are put in place, the lengthy delay might suggest otherwise.
Although in the first few years after the end of the civil war Tajikistan appeared to be becoming increasingly democratic, this movement now appears to be in reverse gear. Alarmed by colour revolutions in other CIS countries, the government started to restrict the freedom of NGOs to operate. A draft NGO law caused concern among the international community and lobbying has resulted in some positive amendments to the restrictions proposed on INGOs. However the national NGOs failed to take an equally united stance and will face a more restrictive environment. Civil society generally is still weak in Tajikistan, even in comparison to other Central Asian countries. Registered organisations, including trade unions and political parties must apply for a permit in order to organise any public assembly or demonstration.
The constitution provides for freedom of religion, but under law, the Council of Ministers registers religious communities and monitors their activities. A controversial and restrictive draft Law on Religion is still under consideration. Recent government action has included the destruction of unregistered mosques and a ban on women wearing the hijab in educational establishments. According to the law, men and women have equal rights but in practice opportunities for women, particularly in rural areas, have declined since the end of the Soviet Union. There is some attempt to keep female representatives in local and central government, but most rural girls have few options other than a poor and curtailed education and early marriage. Domestic violence is widespread but rarely acknowledged. People trafficking, especially of girls to the Middle East, is becoming an issue of concern. A further area of concern is the use of forced labour during the cotton harvest. Although officially in violation of Tajik law, many schools and universities are essentially closed for one to two months in the autumn and the pupils and students more or less forced to pick cotton for minimal wages.
