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Asia and Oceania
Tajikistan |
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Country information
Area: 143,100 sq km
Population: 7 million (UN, 2004)
Capital City: Dushanbe (population: 0.7 million)
People: Tajiks 80%, Uzbeks 15%, Russians 1% and Others 4%.
Religion(s): Sunni Muslim 85%, Ismaili Shiites 5%, some Russian Orthodox Christians and Jews.
Languages: Tajik and Russian
Currency: Somoni
Government: Republic
Registered political parties: People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan, Islamic Revival Party, Communist Party, Democratic Party, Socialist Party, Social Democratic Party, Agrarian Party, Party of Economic Reforms.
Head of State: President Imomali Rahmon (PDP)
Prime Minister/Premier: Akil Akilov
Foreign Minister: Khamrohon Zarifi
Membership of international organisations: OSCE, UN, NATO Partnership for Peace, IMF, World Bank, ADB, IBRD, IDB and EBRD.
Membership of regional organisations: CIS Customs Union, CSTO, Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, EAEC.
ECONOMY
Basic Economic Facts
GDP: US$3.7bn (2007)
Annual GDP Growth: 7% (2007)
Inflation: 20% (2007)
Major Industries: Nonferrous metallurgy, mining, hydro-power, textiles, cotton, fruit.
Major trading partners: Russia, China, Turkey, EU, Iran
Foreign direct investment: US$ 70 mn (2007 projection)
Debt: US$ 1.175 mn (2007 projection)
Tajikistan has the lowest per capita GDP ($427 in 2006) among the 15 former Soviet republics, on a par with much of sub-Saharan Africa as the economy has suffered badly with the loss of its traditional markets after the collapse of the Soviet Union, compounded by the destructive effect of the civil war. The poor state of the roads, limited external transportation links and other infrastructure weaknesses hinders development. The rationing of electricity in winter - when most of the country outside the capital receives no more than four hours (or less) of electricity a day - has serious implications for the ability of industry or IT to operate. Most of the manufacturing plants from Soviet times have been abandoned, but have not been replaced by new production. Around 75% of exports derive from a single large aluminium plant, TALCO. Cotton is the most important crop (although this involves some child labour during the harvest period), accounting for about 9% of exports. Other exports include fruits, vegetables and nuts.
Around 57% (2003) of the population is estimated to live below the official poverty line as defined by the World Bank's indicator of living on less than $2.15 a day. The lack of job opportunities drives up to a million Tajiks to seek work abroad as migrant labourers and their remittances form a major part of the Tajik economy. Although now much reduced, Tajikistan is still dependent on international humanitarian assistance for some of its basic subsistence needs, and needed additional assistance to cope with the humanitarian crisis caused by this year's severe winter. International donors continue to work with the Tajik Government to address the serious development issues with the aim of fulfilling the National Development Strategy and Poverty Reduction Strategy for 2007-09 and reaching the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. The Development Forum which took place in Dushanbe in June 2007 concluded that priority should be given to the development of the health and education sectors, to remove constraints on the development of the SME sector and foreign investment, to develop the energy sector, to implement reforms in the cotton sector, particularly with regard to the cotton debt issue, to encourage full participation by women and to put in place a public external debt strategy. Late in 2007 it transpired that the National Bank of Tajikistan had deliberately misled the IMF on seven separate occasions on the nature of its external debt. Senior National Bank figures were involved in a conflict of interest and the President removed the Chairman and all his deputies in a reshuffle in January 2008. The IMF has now ordered the Tajik authorities to repay five IMF disbursements that were obtained on the basis of false information.
Despite the problems, economic growth has averaged around 9% since the end of the civil war. Inflation remained within single figures for some years but recent price hikes for fuel and consumer goods mean that it reached 20% by the end of 2007 and continued high in early 2008. Tajikistan has considerable economic potential and the government has prioritised infrastructure development, particularly hydro-power and road-building as key to the country's development. Russia, China and Iran are becoming increasingly involved in construction projects. There is some, limited, potential for oil and gas exploitation, while the mountains contain valuable mineral resources including gold, silver, uranium, antimony and tungsten. Western investors, however, find Tajikistan a difficult country in which to work given the high levels of corruption, complex and not entirely transparent bureaucracy, and limited infrastructure. There are no major Western companies currently working in Tajikistan.
HISTORY
Recent History
Tajikistan gained independence from the Soviet Union in September 1991. Conflict was avoided in the immediate struggle for power, but tensions quickly escalated, and by the end of 1992, civil war had broken out.
The civil war in 1992-1997 between the government of President Rahmon and the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) left around 50,000 dead, over 10% of the population (of then approximately 5.7m) displaced and caused $7 billion in damages. UN-mediated talks led to a cease-fire in October 1994, and on 27 June 1997 both sides signed the General Agreement on Peace and National Accord in Moscow. The accord created a National Commission for Reconciliation (CNR) to bring together government and UTO figures. As a result, the Islamic Revival Party received a number of ministerial positions. A Russian-led and dominated peacekeeping force was stationed inside Tajikistan.
A United Nations Mission of Observers in Tajikistan (UNMOT - established by UNSCR 968 of 16 December 1994) assisted with implementing the cease-fire agreement. Its mandate expired in May 2000. A United Nations Peace-building Support Office (UNTOP) which succeeded it finally closed in July 2007, a decade after the signing of the peace agreement.
The implementation of the peace accord was, for a time, threatened by warlords fighting to keep control of parts of the country. In November 1998 troops loyal to the renegade commander, Mahmud Khudoberdiyev (an ethnic Uzbek), mounted an armed incursion into northern Tajikistan. They were repelled after some fighting, but this was a worrying sign of the disenfranchisement felt by the northerners (principally Uzbeks). In 1999 and 2000, armed Islamic rebels opposed to the Government of Uzbekistan used Tajikistan to mount armed incursions into Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. There were several political murders in 2001, but since 2002 levels of violence have decreased substantially. Despite the fact that the IRP and other UTO forces retain very few positions in government, the political and security situation is now stable.
Longer Historical Perspective
Much, if not all, of what is today Tajikistan was part of ancient Persia's Achaemenid Empire (sixth to fourth centuries BC), which was subdued by Alexander the Great in the fourth century BC. The northern part of what is now Tajikistan was part of Soghdiana, a distinct region that intermittently existed as a combination of separate oasis states and sometimes was subject to other states. As intermediaries on the Silk Route between China and markets to the west and south, the Soghdians imported religions such as Buddhism, Nestorian Christianity, Zoroastrianism, and Manichaeism.
Islamic Arabs began the conquest of the region in earnest in the early eighth century. Conversion to Islam occurred by means of incentives, gradual acceptance, and force of arms. Islam spread most rapidly in cities and along the main river valleys. By the ninth century, it was the prevalent religion in the entire region.
In the development of a modern Tajik national identity, the most important state in Central Asia after the Islamic conquest was the Persian-speaking Samanid principality (875-999), which came to rule most of what is now Tajikistan, as well as territory to the south and west. During their reign, the Samanids supported the revival of the written Persian language.
Beginning in the ninth century, Turkish penetration of the Persian cultural sphere increased in Central Asia. The influx of even greater numbers of Turkic peoples began in the eleventh century. The Turkic peoples who moved into southern Central Asia, including what later became Tajikistan, were influenced to varying degrees by Persian culture. During subsequent centuries, the lands that eventually became Tajikistan were part of Turkic or Mongol states. The Persian language remained in use in government, scholarship, and literature. Among the dynasties that ruled all or part of the future Tajikistan between the eleventh and fifteenth centuries were the Seljuk Turks and the Mongols. In the early sixteenth century, Uzbeks conquered Tajikistan but the Uzbek state began to break apart soon after the conquest. By the early nineteenth century, the lands of the future Tajikistan were divided among three states: the Uzbek-ruled Bukhara Khanate, the Kokand Khanate, centred on the Fergana Valley, and the kingdom of Afghanistan. These three principalities subsequently fought each other for control of key areas of the new territory.
Tajikistan was created in 1924 as an autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic (ASSR) within the Uzbekistan SSR. The new autonomous republic included what had been eastern Bukhara and had a population of about 740,000, out of a total population of nearly 5 million in Uzbekistan as a whole. Its capital was established in Dushanbe, a mere village of 3,000 in 1920. In 1929 Tajikistan was detached from Uzbekistan and given full status as a Soviet socialist republic. The territory that is now northern Tajikistan (Soghd) was added to the new republic. In many respects, Tajikistan was one of the least developed of the Soviet Republics, and has suffered particularly severely from the collapse of the previously unified Soviet economy.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Tajikistan continues to regard Russia as its primary partner for both economic and security co-operation, although the relationship appears to be under some strain at present, largely due to the problems over Russian involvement in the Roghun hydro-power project. Under the terms of agreements signed in October 2004, Russia wrote off around $250 million of bilateral debt in return for substantial investment in the Tajik hydro-electric and aluminium industries and continues to maintain its largest permanent overseas military base in Tajikistan.
Tajik-Uzbek relations are uncomfortable as the Uzbek Government regards Tajikistan (largely erroneously) as a haven for Islamic fundamentalists and consequently inhibits travel and economic co-operation between the two countries and regularly interrupts gas supplies to Tajikistan. Relations with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are generally good, although there are resource-related cross-border tensions at local level in the Ferghana Valley and occasional minor armed incidents on the border, the last notable one being in May 2006.
Tajikistan supported the US-led coalition that overthrew the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, and enjoys good relations with Karzai's government. Given the long shared border with Afghanistan, Tajikistan remains a strategically important country in the international community's fight against drug trafficking. Tajikistan shares a common linguistic and cultural heritage with Afghanistan (and Iran) and President Rahmon hopes to develop economic and trading links with Afghanistan, not least as a means of providing Tajikistan with a new southern export route with links to the sea at Karachi.
Tajikistan has deepened its economic and political links with both China and Iran in the last year. Both countries are providing large amounts of untied aid or soft loans for construction projects. Tajikistan is a keen member of the various regional groupings - Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Commonwealth of Independent States and Eurasian Economic Community. However President Rahmon aims to pursue a balanced foreign policy and also maintains good relations with the EU and US, both of whom are major donors to development and security programmes in Tajikistan. The EU has signed a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Tajikistan, although not all Member States have yet ratified the document. The German Presidency of the EU prioritised relations with Central Asia and drafted an EU Central Asia strategy.
Tajikistan's Relations with the UK
Diplomatic Representation
The UK opened an Embassy in Dushanbe in December 2001. Graeme Loten has been HM Ambassador since July 2004. A Tajik Embassy opened in London in May 2008 offering a full consular and visa service.
Cultural Relations with the UK
There is no British Council presence; Tajikistan is covered by the British Council office in Tashkent who have a modest programme focussing on teacher training and assistance to the Tajik Pedagogical University.
Recent Visits
High level contact is limited.
Incoming
- Former Foreign Minister Nazarov visited the UK and met FCO and DfID Ministers in 2001, 2003 and 2006.
- Former Economics and Trade Minister Soliyev visited the UK in 2003.
- General Rustam Nazarov, Head of Tajikistan's Drugs Control Agency, visited the UK in 2004.
- General Zuhurov, then Head of the Tajik Border Guards, visited the UK in July 2006.
Outgoing
- HRH The Duke of York paid a two-day visit to Tajikistan in July 2006, during which he opened the new Embassy building and visited development projects in the area of Kurgan-Tube.
GEOGRAPHY
Tajikistan is bordered by Uzbekistan to the West, Afghanistan to the South, China to the East and Kyrgyzstan to the North. The country is largely (93%) mountainous, with around half its territory lying above 3,000 metres. The highest peak in the former Soviet Union, Peak Somoni (formerly Peak Communism – 7,500 metres) is found in the Tajik Pamir mountains. The climate is extreme continental with hot dry summers in the plains, where temperatures can exceed 40 degrees, while winter temperatures on the Pamir plateau can drop to –40. Tajikistan has an abundant supply of water with the main rivers being the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya (also known as the Pyanj). The bulk of the population lives in the flatter, agricultural areas – the Ferghana Valley to the North, the Gissar and Vakhsh Valleys closer to the capital, and the Khatlon region to the South.
TRADE AND INVESTMENT
UK Development Assistance
DFID, who are co-located with the Embassy, are expanding their development assistance to Tajikistan over the next five years. This will focus on a combination of national and regional development efforts with the aim of contributing to a significant reduction in all dimensions of poverty in Tajikistan. DFID has provided over £4.3 million in 2007-08, including more than £1.5 million in response to the ongoing energy and services crisis.
Since 2003, when DFID opened an office in Tajikistan, assistance has included:
- Micro and small enterprise development through the EBRD
- Third party arbitration courts for the resolution of land/property disputes
- Support to the National Social Investment Fund
- Technical assistance - support to the government's poverty reduction strategy process and development of a medium term budget framework
- Zarafshan Valley Initiative - a package of development assistance to contribute to raising living standards and integrating the region into the national economy
- Regional support to HIV/AIDS programmes in Tajikistan (Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan)
The Embassy operates a bilateral programme budget, worth £75,000 in 2007-08, which funds small-scale projects focusing on human rights and good governance and the development of the independent media. From central funds, the British Government supports projects on conflict prevention in the Ferghana Valley and the Khatlon region of southern Tajikistan.
A further major focus of UK assistance to Tajikistan is devoted to improving Tajikistan's capacity to manage effectively its border with Afghanistan in order to stop drug trafficking. This assistance is currently channelled through UNODC and EU programmes, and amounts to £500,000 for infrastructure improvements and training on the Tajik side of the border, and £500,000 to the Afghan side in 2007, plus £50,000 for a UNODC regional intelligence-sharing project.
Trade and Investment with the UK
UK-Tajikistan trade is slim, but UK companies have some investments in the extraction industries. Exports to Tajikistan in 2004 were £3.89m and imports £513,000. ECGD cover is not available.
With effect from the 1 April 2005, there are no official UKTI trade services in this market to help British companies who wish to export or invest there, except for lobbying in relation to UK companies' commercial interests by the Head of Mission.
POLITICS
Recent Political Developments
Presidential elections in November 2006 resulted in a landslide victory of 79% for the incumbent, President Rahmon, who has effectively been in power since 1992. As a result of a constitutional referendum in 2003, Rahmon could run for a further term of office, potentially allowing him to remain President until 2020. The last Parliamentary elections, which were held in February 2005, resulted in an overwhelming majority for the President's party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP). The OSCE concluded that neither Presidential nor Parliamentary elections had been fully in accordance with international standards. Although there appeared to be a choice of candidates and parties in both elections, and most voting procedures were in accordance with OSCE norms, the genuineness of some of the "opposition" candidates has been called into question, as has the reliability of the vote counting procedures. The main, genuine opposition party, the Islamic Revival Party decided not to field a candidate for President on the grounds that they needed to consolidate their party following the recent death of their leader, Nuri, and have only partially competed in recent by-elections, complaining that they did not believe the elections would be transparent and fair.
The Islamic Revival Party (IRP) is the only officially recognised Islamic party in Central Asia. Its legality is enshrined in the civil war peace accord and, under the direction of its current leader, Muhiddin Kabiri, pursues a moderate, liberal policy, envisaging a secular state guided by Muslim principles. Its decision not to pursue a more radical Islamic agenda or to be overly critical of the government has led to some increase in support for the banned Islamic movement, Hizb-ut-Tahrir, which pursues a more radical, pan-Islamic agenda.
As a result of the civil war peace accord, the ruling PDP agreed to share 30% of all governmental positions with United Opposition candidates. This was never fully implemented and the government has steadily reduced the number of positions awarded to non PDP members. This has not, however, resulted in open political discontent. At the same time, President Rahmon has continued to consolidate his hold on power by neutralising former warlords and potential rivals from both sides of the civil war divide. Iskandarov, the Head of the Democratic Party, was seized in dubious circumstances in Moscow in 2005, tried and convicted to 25 years in prison in Tajikistan for corruption and other offences. The former Head of the Presidential Guard, General Mirzoyev, was sentenced to life imprisonment in August 2006 for organising a coup d'etat. One of the legacies of the civil war is the fear among Tajiks that "opposition" politics are likely to be divisive and dangerous to national stability and peace. For the time being, this, together with the absence of any strong opposition figures or parties, mitigates against the likelihood of a "coloured" revolution in Tajikistan.
While a façade of democracy is in place, in practice power is concentrated in the hands of the President. Recent election victories and government re-shuffles have not resulted in any change of policies or invigorated the political landscape. Parliament is weak and acts as little more than a rubber stamp for Presidential decrees. There are no genuine debates and deputies are seen more as sources of patronage than as representatives of their constituents' interests. Nevertheless, President Rahmon retains genuine popularity as the man seen as being responsible for bringing peace to the country and managing to retain its stability.
Challenges to stability
Tajikistan remains beset, however, by social and economic problems that, if left unsolved, could lead in the longer term to discontent being openly expressed. Much of the country's infrastructure (transport, roads, utilities) is now worse than in Soviet times while access to services such as health and education is less equitable than in the past, and the quality has declined as many of the country's educated and technical professionals left Tajikistan during the civil war. The dire state of government planning and provision was most graphically illustrated during the energy crisis caused by the particularly severe winter of 2007-08. Almost all industry shut down, rural areas were bereft of electricity for up to three months and even the capital faced severe rationing. The Tajik Government were slow to face up to the reality of the situation and it was, the UN who issued a humanitarian appeal which raised almost $10 million for emergency works and supplies. The medium-term effects of the crisis continue to be felt as farmers have no stocks or financial reserves to fund this year's planting. Despite these problems people are still reluctant to openly criticise the government for mis-management.
The increasing concentration of power in the hands of a small coterie of officials from the President's home area of Dangara is alienating those from other parts of the country, while preventing the selection of the best people for the job. Despite the creation of an anti-corruption committee, the government has so far failed seriously to address the issue (not least as corrupt practices pervade so far and high within Tajik society). Corruption at all levels is a major impediment to progress and inequalities of wealth are now becoming obvious in the capital. One of the most worrying aspects of the visible new wealth is that only a small proportion is likely to be the result of legitimate business; much is likely to derive from corrupt practices or as a result of Tajikistan's role as a transit country for Afghan heroin. However, despite the growing presence of drug traffickers, other criminal activity does not appear to have increased and the country remains relatively safe.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Tajikistan is a signatory to most of the UN Conventions on human rights. In June 2004, the Tajik parliament adopted a moratorium on the death penalty and in March 2005 President Rahmon signed into law alternatives to the death penalty, ranging from 25 years to life imprisonment. Prison conditions are grim. Despite high-level lobbying, the ICRC have not been allowed ad-hoc prison access. The court system is largely unmodified from the Soviet era. There is no genuine independent judiciary and bribery of judges and prosecutors is thought to be widespread.
Independent media outlets are legal in Tajikistan but penalties for libel and 'irresponsible' journalism encourage self-censorship. This, combined with rather low professional journalistic skills and a limited market for written media (newspapers are only published once a week) results in an underdeveloped media environment, although the analytical quality of articles is improving. The BBC has been unable to broadcast on FM since January 2006. Although the government have given assurances that this is only for technical reasons while the registering and licensing agreements are put in place, the lengthy delay might suggest otherwise.
Although in the first few years after the end of the civil war Tajikistan appeared to be becoming increasingly democratic, this movement now appears to be in reverse gear. Alarmed by colour revolutions in other CIS countries, the government started to restrict the freedom of NGOs to operate. A draft NGO law caused concern among the international community and lobbying has resulted in some positive amendments to the restrictions proposed on INGOs. However the national NGOs failed to take an equally united stance and will face a more restrictive environment. Civil society generally is still weak in Tajikistan, even in comparison to other Central Asian countries. Registered organisations, including trade unions and political parties must apply for a permit in order to organise any public assembly or demonstration.
The constitution provides for freedom of religion, but under law, the Council of Ministers registers religious communities and monitors their activities. A controversial and restrictive draft Law on Religion is still under consideration. Recent government action has included the destruction of unregistered mosques and a ban on women wearing the hijab in educational establishments. According to the law, men and women have equal rights but in practice opportunities for women, particularly in rural areas, have declined since the end of the Soviet Union. There is some attempt to keep female representatives in local and central government, but most rural girls have few options other than a poor and curtailed education and early marriage. Domestic violence is widespread but rarely acknowledged. People trafficking, especially of girls to the Middle East, is becoming an issue of concern. A further area of concern is the use of forced labour during the cotton harvest. Although officially in violation of Tajik law, many schools and universities are essentially closed for one to two months in the autumn and the pupils and students more or less forced to pick cotton for minimal wages.
