Asia and Oceania

Burma
Last reviewed: 02 December 2008

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POLITICS

Military governments have ruled Burma since 1962. In 1988 pro-democracy protests were brutally crushed by the military. In 1990 national elections were held in Burma for the first time in 30 years. The National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK), won the elections with an overwhelming majority. The military regime refused to recognise the results claiming a new constitution must be passed before power could be handed over. However, democratic groups such as the National League for Democracy have remained resolute in their opposition to the regime.

Recent Political Developments

In May 2003, supporters of the military authorities attacked ASSK and her convoy of NLD supporters in Depayin, central Burma. ASSK was taken into 'protective custody' by the regime and held incommunicado until September 2003, when she was moved to house arrest where she remains. Over 100 NLD members were arrested and detained in prison, although most have since been released. U Tin Oo, NLD Vice Chairman, was held in prison until February 2004 when he too was placed under house arrest. NLD party offices, except the Rangoon headquarters, remain closed.

On 30 August 2003, General Khin Nyunt of the governing State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) announced a 7-step road map to build a "modern, democratic, prosperous state". The National Convention, the first step of the road map, was reconvened in 2004, after a recess of 8 years, to draw up the basic principles for a new constitution for Burma. The NLD decided not to participate in the Convention because the SPDC refused to meet their conditions, including the release of ASSK and U Tin Oo and the re-opening of NLD offices. In October Khin Nyunt was arrested and replaced, as Prime Minister, by Lt Gen (later General) Soe Win (who died in October 2007). Khin Nyunt’s once powerful Military Intelligence Unit was disbanded and many of the former MI remain in prison, although a new Military Intelligence has grown in its place.

The Ethnic Minorities

Ethnic minorities make up some 35% of the overall population. There are around 120 of them, and seven main groups besides the dominant (Buddhist) Burmans. Tension between the ethnic fringes and the Burman heartland remains an enduring feature of political life. Promises of autonomy have been dangled, but never delivered. The history is one of distrust and marginalisation. It is rare to find anyone in a senior position in government or military that is not Burman. The minorities are politically and economically disenfranchised and deeply frustrated at the non-inclusive nature of the regime's roadmap.

The conflicts have been extraordinarily enduring. The Karen National Union (KNU) has been fighting since 1949. The Kachin Independent Organisation (KIO) signed a cease-fire in 1994 after 33 years. All this has resulted in untold misery, no more so than in eastern Burma where sixty years of fighting (particularly between the KNU and the military, with the KNU reporting 2000 clashes in the last year) has left communities shattered. There are some 500,000 IDPs and 160,000 recognised refugees on the Thai border as well as many more illegal migrants. The plight of the Karen in particular attracts a high level of parliamentary interest.

The picture now is a complex patchwork of ceasefire and non-ceasefire groups. Some, like the Wa - close to the border with China - have carved out a significant degree of autonomy. Some have splintered and there is intra ethnic friction in several areas, particularly in Shan state.

The Road Map

The first stage of the 7-step Road Map towards 'disciplined democracy', the National Convention, was completed without fanfare on 3 September 2007. There have been five sittings of the National Convention, held intermittently since May 2004. The National Convention, originally convened from 1993-1996 recommenced under the initiative of General Khin Nyunt in 2003. Despite the regime's determined commitment to the process, it has not been considered credible or inclusive by the opposition, ethnic ceasefire groups or the international community. Most of the 1080 delegates have been handpicked by the regime and have little independence. The NLD decided not to attend when it became clear the SPDC would not meet their conditions, which included the release of ASSK and Chairman U Tin Oo and the re-opening of NLD offices.

The Burmese military government in December 2007 formed a commission tasked with drawing up the draft constitution. The commission announced in mid February 2008 that the drafting process is completed.

In early February 2008, the military government announced that it would hold a constitutional referendum in May this year to approve the draft constitution, followed by multi-party elections in 2010.

The referendum was held on 10 May in most parts of the country. The vote was delayed until 24 May in the cyclone-hit areas. The decision to continue as planned with the referendum was seen by the public as unsympathetic and wholly inappropriate. There was clear manipulation and tampering of the vote, including open ballots, intimidation, blackmail, and a clearly fabricated final result. The Government announced on 26 May that the Constitution had been approved.

Ethnic Minorities Ceasefires

The government claims they have negotiated ceasefire arrangements with 17 out of 18 of the armed groups. There are however arguably up to 40 armed groups. Some significant ceasefires have been agreed, such as with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Shan State Army - North (SSA-N), but there are non-ceasefire groups who are still fighting, albeit small scale and sporadically in localised areas. These include the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the Karenni Army,the Shan State Army - South (SSA-S) and the Shan State National Army(SSNA).

Some ethnic minority groups have tried hard to be constructive with the regime, such as the Kachin Independence Organisation. The National Convention has proved an unsatisfactory process of engagement. Views within ethnic groups remain divided on whether to accept the Road Map as the only realistic chance for change or whether to return to fighting if the Constitution-drafting committee continues to ignore their demands for greater self-rule at state-level and better protection of ethnic autonomy.

Many cease-fire groups, under pressure from the regime, issued statements in the state-run newspapers, rejecting the statement made by Aung San Suu Kyi, which called for broad dialogue including with the ethnic nationalities of Burma, for national reconciliation.

Most of the cease-fire groups did not publicly stat their position on the recent referendum. Some, the New Mon State Party and Kachin Independent Organisation, are reported to have ordered their members not to vote.

Protests and the Crackdown: September 2007

Sudden fuel-price hikes at the end of September sparked small-scale protests of up to 100 people, lead by the 1988 student leaders, whose political activity had slowly been on the rise since their release from prison in 2004. In late August more than 100 activists from the '88 student group and NLD youth members were arrested. Anger began to rise amongst the general population. There was a significant increase in the number of junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) members and government-paid thugs roaming the streets.

In early September, an impromptu protest by monks in Pakokku, central Burma, sympathising with people's growing economic hardship was mishandled by local authorities, who shot bullets over the monks' heads. The monks, in anger, held officials hostage and burnt government property. A statement was issued by the previously unknown Alliance of All Burma Buddhist Monks youth monks calling for an apology, the release of Aung San Su Kyi and demanding genuine political dialogue. One week later (on 18 September) monks in Rangoon and other towns began peacefully marching the streets, chanting prayers, and cheered by onlookers. Activists and public supporters soon followed and then participated and they quickly took on a more political overtone. The protest marches in Rangoon gained momentum and tens of thousands of monks and people took part in their peaceful marches in the following days.

The protests continued to grow for over a week, but on 26 September the regime finally acted, beating up monks as they gathered at the Shwedagon Pagoda, establishing a curfew and beginning night time raids of monasteries, brutally beating and arresting monks and destroying property.

On 27 September, several thousand civilians gathered in central Rangoon, although very few monks were to be seen (either arrested or guarded in their monasteries). When the crowds refused to disperse, the military and police troops threw smoke gas and shot into and above the crowd, in front of hundreds of local and foreign onlookers. Government sources say that 9 were killed and around 15 were injured but independent commentators fear the numbers were higher. A Japanese journalist was among those killed.

The International Community was swift and united in condemning the military government for the violent crackdown on the pro-democracy protesters. The UN special envoy Mr. Ibrahim Gambari came to Burma shortly after the crackdown and met with junta leader Sr. Gen. Than Shwe and ASSK separately. After Gambari's first visit after the protests, some initial progress was made. The regime appointed a liaison officer, Aung Kyi who has already met with ASSK for five times, and around half of the estimated 3000 prisoners have been released. However, the regime has been less prepared to cooperate with Gambari and their dialogue with Aung San Suu kyi was not continued. Mr. Gambari last visited Burma from 17 – 22 August.