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Security: is climate change a threat multiplier?

Climate change presents a threat that goes far beyond the immediate disruption to our environment. The physical effects of climate change, such as sea level rise, droughts, floods and other extreme weather events, will lead to social and economic problems: large scale migration, crop failure, faster and wider spread of diseases, economic volatility, and resource competition. Climate change will accelerate global instability, exacerbate existing tensions around the world. 

Climate change will create greater uncertainty and turn things we've taken for granted such as fresh water access, stable coastlines or fertile land into scarce resources and therefore potential sources of conflict.

Crop failures, uncontrolled migration, conflict over scarce resources and the increased incidence of disease will present challenges for all countries given the interconnected nature of our globalised system, but impact most heavily on already fragile states, who have the least adaptive capacity to respond to the changes. Climate change acts both as a creator of new threats and a 'threat multiplier', magnifying existing weaknesses and tensions around the world.

The social and economic effects of climate change will also be exacerbated by the estimated rise in world population of 2.5billion over the next 40 years and the intensification of demand for energy, estimated to increase by 50% by 2030.

Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, the UK's Climate and Energy Security Envoy, explains why climate change can be a threat multiplier.